A world where science and progress will lead to all men's happiness.

At the end of the WWI, Europe was plunged into a wave of pesimism and a faith crisis. By that time, a new cultural and intelectual movement had resurged: the regenerating humanism.
Nowadays, I feel the same. We, almost one century after the WWI, feel the same. We see a world of greed, a world with lack of humanism. And without humanism, mankind will be lost.

The following words came from the film The Great Dictator, from the final speech.

"Greed has poisoned men's souls; has barricaded the world with hate; has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed, but we have shut ourselves in. Machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge as made us cynical; our cleverness, hard and unkind. We think too much and feel too little. More than machinery we need humanity. More than cleverness, we need kindness and gentleness. Without these qualities, life will be violent and all will be lost. The aeroplane and the radio have brought us closer together. The very nature of these inventions cries out for the goodness in man; cries out for universal brotherhood; for the unity of us all. [...]

[...] Let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work, that will give youth a future and old age a security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power. But they lie! They do not fulfill their promise. They never will! Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people! Now let us fight to fulfill that promise! Let us fight to free the world! To do away with national barriers! To do away with greed, with hate and intolerance! Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men’s happiness."

...A world where science and progress will lead to all men's happiness. Nice words. =)

World's exponential growth

Probably the most interesting video I've seen this month and by far this week is just about the arithmetic of Ln2.
I know it sounds a little bit boring, but maths, applied with common sense and in the right way changes a simple figure into reliable data and predictions to the future.

The correct use of Ln2 provides the user the ability to predict when a figure is going to double if it grows with a constant rate, let's say e.g. 5% per year.

The arithmetic is very simple: nº years = (Ln2)/(5%) = (100*Ln2)/5 = 14 years

You can do the arithmetic in your mind easily due to 100*Ln2 = 70. Also 70/5 = 14

That means that a figure that grows 5% per year would double in 14 years.
If the growth is 7% a year, it would double in 10 years. (nº = 70/7 = 10)
If the growth rate is 10% it would double in 7 years and so on.

So, why is this so important? Let's see what's going to happen in the World in the next years.

GDP Growth rate

China and India's GDP grow at a rate of 10% per year and Brazil's GDP at a rate of 7.5%. Germany's GDP growth rate just at a rate of 3.5%.
That means, and figures and arithmetic don't lie, that China and India will double their GDP, and therefore the market value of all final goods and services produced in that countries, just in 7 years: 2019!
Brazil in 10 years: 2022! And Germany, which growth rate is the biggest in EU, at a constant rate of growth, will double in 20 years: 2032.

Population Growth rate

That's another important figure for The Earth's future. In the 80's the World growth rate was 1.9% per year (we were 5,000 million people in the World). Now we are 7,000 million people (40% more just in 25 years) and our growth rate is 1.1% per year. That means that aproximately in 2080 we'll be 14,000 million people. I know that's imposible cause there aren't enough resources for everyone so something is going to happen before 2080.



Maybe it's the WWIII, maybe is just an illness like the Black Death or the Great Famine (killing more than 300 million people in 14th century).

Fortunatly, the biggest and advanced countries in the world are reducing their birth rate and converging to small families with 1 to 2 children per woman, which will ensure the equilibrium between people and resources.

Unfortunatly, there are still some countries with more than 2 children per woman (which are experimenting the highest population and growth rates), and that tradicionally had health problems and high mortality but now, due to health care systems and medicines, the mortality rate is improving sometimes faster than we're changing those people minds about having small families.



History of world's GDP

Interesting graph published by The Economist.

It shows the percentage of all the goods and services (what economists' call GDP) produced in history that was produced in each of the 21 centuries.

Interesting to note that 55% of history's GDP was produced in the XXth century. But perhaps more interestingly, 23% of the goods and services produced through history were produced during the LAST 10 YEARS!!!

Finally, it is also interesting that 28% of the person-years lived through history were lived in the XXth century (reflecting both the increase in population and the increase in life expectancy) and only 6% of years lived were lived in the last 10 years. Of course the implication is that the income earned by the average person has increased exponentially. Another example that our economic system is not as bad as many want us to believe!



Text directly quoted from: Xavier Sala i Martin, http://salaimartin.com/random-thoughts/item/205-history-of-worlds-gdp.html

Is this the world we created?

Today is one of these days when you really think about what we're doing with the world. A friend of mine from Nicaragua told me in an inspirational conversation how he sold everything in his home country in order to get some money to emigrate to Europe.

I used to think there's no future in Spain and I feel myself as part of this lost generation, that with a cheap flight, flown to other countries looking for a better future. I identify myself with the profile of the new emigrant but after the talk I realise that there are places in the world where life is even more difficult.

Maybe it's because I was born with silver spoon in hand and I've never had real problems, but I don't think I'm strong enough to face the daily life in a place like Nicaragua. People from there, face a world dominated by corruption and streets full of thiefs and murderers. These people are brave enough to leave everything they know and move to another country with nothing in their hands but their nuts and willingness to survive and grow.

They have this courage we have not, and so, they are going to be the real leaders for the next years, just because of their strong character and determination and, in most of cases, because they also have an universitary degree under their arms.

We have to learn form them, from their passion and strenght. And remember that we are emigrants too.

Here there's a video from Queen to make you think a little bit:

[Lyrics:]

Just look at all those hungry mouths we have to feed
Take a look at all the suffering we breed
So many lonely faces scattered all around
Searching for what they need

Is this the world we created?
What did we do it for?
Is this the world we invaded
Against the law?
So it seems in the end
Is this what we're all living for today?
The world that we created

You know that every day a helpless child is born
Who needs some loving care inside a happy home
Somewhere a wealthy man is sitting on his throne
Waiting for life to go by

Is this the world we created?
We made it on our own
Is this the world we devastated
Right to the bone?
If there's a God in the sky looking down
What can he think of what we've done
To the world that He created?